Dinâmica espaço-temporal da Esquistossomose Mansônica em Alagoas (2007-2017)

Abstract

Schistosomiasis is a frequent parasitic disease in tropical and subtropical countries. The objective of this research was to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of schistosomiasis mansoni in the state of Alagoas, from 2007 to 2017. This is a mixed ecological, with statistical treatment performed in three steps: temporal modeling; simple descriptive analysis (absolute and relative frequencies); spatial modeling. 827 new cases of mansonic schistosomiasis were reported in Alagoas, with an incidence rate of 2.37 / 100 thousand inhabitants. Over the time series, the regression model showed two distinct behaviors, the first of which declined between 2007 and 2012, whose incidence rate decreased from 5.75 / 100 thousand to 0.88 / 100 thousand (APC-29.78 %; p <0.001), and the second stationary from 2012. The epidemiological profile was characterized by the involvement of the adult population of productive age, since 60.58% (n = 501) were aged between 20 and 59 years, followed by the population under 15 years (15.24; n = 126). Additionally, 63.12% (n = 522) were brown and 49.58% (n = 410) autochthonous. The observed cure rate was only (35.43%; n = 293) and the lethality 8.34% (n = 69). Thus, schistosomiasis in the state of Alagoas has a high record of municipalities with high incidence rate for the disease; considerable number of municipalities where the population was not worked in the period, allowing the absence and / or underreporting of important data on the disease; and the state exhibited a high endemicity, given that twelve municipalities exceed the state percentage.